The
China Puzzle-『中國謎團』-2
(承前文)
習大大和川普明顯對照之處，在於川普的衝動，和他所擁護的孤立主義和保護主義的，「美國第一」的議程。習近平穩定地干預，當他試圖重塑全球經濟和政治秩序，並誘使其他一些國家，進入成為以北京為領導中心的軌道內。
Chinese trade is undeniably a
big draw for many countries. So is Mr. Xi’s promised, though perhaps quixotic,
$1 trillion investment in his
One Belt, One Road initiative, an ambitious
network of trading routes and development projects — roads, ports, pipelines
and the like from China to Africa and Europe — that seems also to have drawn
Mr. Bannon’s admiration. Having long operated quietly in Russia’s shadow at the
United Nations, the Chinese are also speaking out more forcefully and engaging
more robustly across multiple regions, a trend that has accelerated under Mr.
Trump.
無疑，對許多國家來說，中國的經貿是極大的吸引力。習近平的承諾也是如此，雖然也許不切實際，因$ 1 兆億元的投資在他的一帶一路的倡議中，它是一個雄心勃勃的貿易路線和發展專案，包括從中國到非洲和歐洲的公路、 港口、油管道等等，這計劃似乎也吸引了貝隆(Bannon) 先生的羨慕。曾經在聯合國長期靜靜地，屈身於俄羅斯的陰影下運作的中國人，也正在有力地大聲疾呼，和更強而有力地吸引許多跨國地區，此一趨勢已經在川普執政下加速地進行。
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump, unlike his
predecessor, Barack Obama, who worked to expand American influence in Asia, has
ceded significant ground to China, especially by withdrawing from the 12-nation
Trans-Pacific Partnership and thus allowing Beijing an opening to set trade
rules in the region. The American president will share the world stage with Mr.
Xi for the first time this week when both men address the annual United Nations
General Assembly.
同時，不像他的前任-，努力擴大美國在亞洲的影響力的歐巴馬總統，川普對中國大大的讓步，尤其是，退出含有 12 個國家跨太平洋夥伴關係-TPP，從而使北京有機會在該地區制定貿易規則。本周首次在一年一度的聯合國大會中，當两人發表演說時，美國總統將與習近平分享世界舞臺。
Can there be robust cooperation?
In 2005, when President George W. Bush was in office, Robert Zoellick, then a
deputy secretary of state, encouraged China to become a “responsible stakeholder”
and help strengthen the Western-designed postwar international system from
which it benefited. Yet today more officials and experts are putting China in
the adversary category, or leaning toward doing so, not least because of
Beijing’s decision to expand its military capability and project it further
into the South China Sea.
會有强而有力的合作？在 2005 年，當小布希總統執政時，當時擔任副國務卿的羅伯特 · 佐利克，曾鼓勵中國成為一個「負責任的利益關係相關者」，並幫助强化西方設計的戰後國際系統，中國受益於此系統。然而，今天更多的美國官員和專家，卻將中國置于敵對的國家範圍中，或傾向于如此做，絕非僅僅因為北京的決定擴大，其軍事能力和進一步推動進入南中國海。
Still, to anyone who steps back
from the immediate conflicts over territory and trade, there is no alternative
to cooperation on major challenges, even if interests aren’t always aligned.
Mr. Trump is supposed to make his first presidential trip to Beijing in
November, and Mr. Xi will certainly want to demonstrate that he can work with
and manage the mercurial American president. The meeting is a natural
forcing mechanism for getting some things done.
仍然，對於從領土和貿易立即衝突退縮下來的任何人而言，在重大挑戰上，除了合作外，別無選擇，即使利益並不總是一致。川普預訂在 11 月首次到北京訪問，而習近平肯定會想要展現出，他能夠與美國總統合作，並駕馭他反復無常的個性。兩人的會面是一個自然的強迫性機制力，它可以完成一些事情。
Here’s one thing that is not
much talked about: counterterrorism. Mr.
Trump worries about the Islamic State, Mr. Xi about Muslim Uighurs in China’s
northwestern region of Xinjiang. Beijing could benefit from American
intelligence about militants returning from the Middle East to Xinjiang;
Washington would be interested in China’s help in persuading Pakistan to crack
down on the Taliban.
有一件討論不多的事情： 『反恐』。川普先生擔心的是伊斯蘭國家(ISIS)，而習近平則關心，在中國西北地方的新疆回教徒的維吾爾人。北京可能受益于美國情報部門，提供有關武裝分子從中東返回新疆；華盛頓有興趣于中國的幫助，說服巴基斯坦擊垮塔利班(阿富汗恐怖)組織。
On trade, there may be an
opportunity for progress on a bilateral investment treaty, with American
investment offered in exchange for broader access to the Chinese market for
American companies. On intellectual property, now that China is putting energy
into developing its own technology instead of just stealing America’s, the two
could work together on stronger protections.
貿易方面，在雙邊投資條約上，也許可能有進展的機會，以換取美國投資更廣泛地，進入中國市場。關於智慧財產權，既然中國正投入發展自己的科技，而非僅僅偷美國科技，兩國可能共同致力於更強有力的保護項目。
And then, of course, there is
North Korea. Mr. Trump has insisted far more strongly than Mr. Obama that
China, as the North’s main supplier of food and fuel, could single-handedly
resolve the North Korea nuclear crisis if it wanted to. China can do a lot, and
it did support the United States in passing
tougher United Nations Security Council sanctions last
week. But it has no interest in seeing North Korea collapse, and doubts remain
about whether it could force the North to negotiate.
當然，然後就是朝鮮問題。川普一直比歐巴馬更強烈堅持認為，中國作為北韓的主要食品和燃料供應者，如果它要的話，應能獨力地解決朝鮮核子危機。中國可以做很多，而它也支持美國，在上周通過，更嚴厲的聯合國安全理會的制裁案。但它並有沒有興趣看到北韓垮台，至于是否它可能會迫使北韓談判的疑慮卻仍然存在。
There is a template for
cooperation, and while it involves an issue in which Mr. Trump has no interest,
it provides a glimpse of a way forward. The issue is climate change. A
combination of arduous negotiation by Secretary of State John Kerry and the
Obama White House, plus China’s own horrible air pollution problems, brought
Beijing around to signing the Paris accord and making a major commitment to
stabilize greenhouse gas emissions. Self-interest and patient diplomacy: a
combination that could work to the benefit of the entire world.
有一個合作的範本，雖然它涉及川普不感興趣的問題，但它提供了前進的一瞥遠景。問題就是氣候變化。聯合了前國務卿約翰 · 凱利和歐巴馬政府，通過艱苦談判，再加上中國可怕的空氣污染問題，促使北京簽署了《巴黎協定 》 並作出重大的承諾，穩定溫室氣體排放。利己主義和耐心的外交政策，兩者併合可以有利於全世界。
全文完
編譯者結論：
從上文-紐約時報社論看，未來美、中兩大國之關係，將逐漸走向相互認識與瞭解。朝鮮半島的飛弾狂射，仍限於美國和北韓之間的互嗆而已，雙方尚不敢真正動手。而中、美兩國互動，互補互利、各取所需。也因互動頻仍，有人懷疑台灣地位之重要性似乎已被忽視，但其實不然，台灣問題之重要性絲毫不減，只是美、中兩國正面衝突的機會增加不大，固因同屬核子武器大國，彼此知所節制也。不久前的中、印邊界衝突和平落幕之因複雜，也因互有顧慮所致。最近有美國情報與軍事專家著書，預測中國即將攻台，甚至確切預定攻台日期如，2018, 2020或2049年等..，導致台灣人心惶惶。如1990年代有人臆測「1995潤八月」是大陸攻台時間。如今20多年已過，事後證明全屬「子虛烏有」。另外，台海戰事已非中、台之戰而已，其牽連性頗廣，中國不能不考慮，而台灣人也絕不願再見到228的悪夢再現。
Justin Lai 編譯
10/11/2017
