-聯儲局和會計政策(3)

The Fed and Fiscal Policy-聯儲局和會計政策(3)

And yet, in the Summary of Economic Projections, meeting participants made few changes to their economic outlook. Notably, at the median, expected real growth was raised by only 0.1 percent for 2017, relative to the September projection, and no change was made for expected growth in 2018. No change at all was made to the median inflation projections for 2017 or 2018. The median path for the Fed’s policy interest rate included just one additional rate increase over the next two years—a small adjustment, probably reflecting changes by only a few participants.

然而，在經濟預測的總摘要中，與會者幾未更改他們對經濟的展望。值得注意的是，相關的9 月份的投射，在中位數上，預期實際的增長2017 年只增加 0.1%。而2018的預期成長沒有改變。2017年或 2018 年所有中位數通彭預測毫無改變。美聯儲的政策利率的中位數路徑僅包括，未來兩年只是一個附加率的增加 —這個小的調整，可能反映出只有幾個參與者所做的更改。

Why was the Fed’s reaction to the prospective fiscal changes so limited, in contrast to the ebullience of the markets? The minutes, as well as subsequent comments by Fed speakers, suggest several reasons:

為什麼對於潛在的會計變化，美聯儲的反應是如此有限，而與熱絡洋溢的市場成為對比？會議記錄以及隨後美聯儲發言者評論，說明以下若干原因︰

1.    In the face of substantial uncertainty, Fed policymakers often opt for a cautious approach.

1.面對的巨大的不確定性，美聯儲決策者經常選擇謹慎的做法。

As a general matter, Fed policymakers prefer not to whipsaw markets if at all possible. Consequently, and reasonably enough, FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) participants want to have a strong rationale before signaling a change in their strategy, even tentatively. At this point, the outlook for fiscal policy is much too hazy to prompt such a shift.

通常，美聯儲政策制定者，如果可能的話，寧願不讓市場上漁翁得利。因此，和具有足夠的理由 FOMC(聯邦開放市場委員會)的參與者，要發出他們策略改變的信號之前，即使是試探性，也要有一個強而有力的理由。在這一點，會計政策的前景是太模糊，以致無法提示這種轉變。

Indeed, the format of the Summary of Economic Projections encourages a cautious approach. As I discussed here, FOMC projections are for modal or “most likely” scenarios. Perhaps FOMC participants saw a big fiscal program as a possible outcome but not the most likely scenario.[1] Consistent with that, in December, meeting participants saw increased “upside risks” to their projections. Since asset prices generally reflect an average of possible outcomes rather than just the most likely possibility, the focus of Fed projections on modal outcomes can help explain at least some part of the discrepancy between the apparent caution of monetary policymakers and the surge in asset prices.

的確，經濟預測摘要的格式，鼓勵一種謹慎的對策。如同這裡討論的，聯邦公開市場委員會的預計，是針對未來的模態或"最有可能"的景况。也許聯邦公開市場委員會，曾預測到某一大的會計計畫，為一個可能的結果，但並非最有可能的情況。[1] 與此相一致，在 12 月會議參與者看到，他們的預測"增加了 “上行風險"。因為資產價格普遍反映可能結果之平均值，而非只是最大的可能性，所以美聯儲對模態結果預測的焦點，可以有助於解釋，貨幣政策制定者明顯的謹慎，和資產價格的飆升之間，至少有部分之一致。

2. Based on what is known now, it’s not clear that the near-term macroeconomic effects of fiscal changes will be large, even if major legislation passes.

2.    根據目前所知，尚不清楚，即使主要立法獲得通過。會計變化的近期宏觀經濟的影響是否會很大。

For assessing the effects of a fiscal program on near-term growth, the details—few of which are currently available—matter a lot. According to the minutes, FOMC participants in the December meeting expressed considerable uncertainty about the “timing, size, and composition” of a prospective fiscal package. But I suspect that in thinking through possible fiscal scenarios, Fed policymakers saw many as suggesting a fiscal program with less near-term economic impact than markets appear to be assuming.

為評估財政程式對近期增長的影響， 這些相關的細節很重要，雖然目前能取得的不多。根據會議紀錄，聯邦公開市場委員會 12 月會議的出席者，關於未來整套的會計計劃的 『時間、 大小和組成』，表示相當的不確定。但我懷疑，在詳細思考可能的財政情況時，美聯儲決策者曾看到許多暗示著，比市場表面上看起來有較少近期的經濟衝擊。

Regarding the size and composition of the program: One key source of uncertainty is political. Passage of new fiscal measures will be made more likely by the facts that Republicans control both the House and the Senate, and that under some circumstances budget bills can pass the Senate with only a simple majority. Still, there are questions. For example, many congressional Republicans have been vocal deficit hawks; will they accept a big fiscal package, if it results in a substantial increase in the federal budget deficit? In particular, will Republicans be willing to support big increases in spending, including infrastructure spending?

關於本會計計劃的大小和程式的組成︰一個不確定性的關鍵來源是政治。由於共和黨控制眾議院和參議院，新的會計措施之通過將更有可能；並且在某些情況下，預算法案只要簡單的多數就能在參議院通過。不過，仍有些問題存在。例如，許多國會的共和黨人一直是，說話大聲的反對赤字的鷹派;如果它導致聯邦預算赤字大幅增加，他們會接受一個整套的大會計計劃嗎？尤其是，共和黨人願意支持支出的大增加，包括基礎設施建設支出嗎？

待續-

Ben S. Bernanke (前任聯邦儲備銀行理事主席-柏南克)

02/27/2017

美國南加州

Justin Lai (賴正雄) 編譯