-聯儲局(美國央行)和會計政策(2)

The Fed and Fiscal Policy-聯儲局和會計政策(2)

 美國聯邦儲備(中央)銀行

Fiscal policy influences the economy through many channels. The econometric models used at the Fed for constructing forecasts tend to summarize fiscal effects in terms of changes in aggregate demand or aggregate supply. For example, a rise in spending on public infrastructure, or a tax cut that prompts consumers to spend more, increases demand. Fiscal policies also affect aggregate supply, for example, through the incentives provided by the tax code. To project the impact of a proposed fiscal package on the economy, Fed modelers and policymakers must assess the size and timing of these demand and supply effects, which they do based both on theory and historical experience. 

  現任聯邦儲備銀行理事主席

藉由許多管道會計政策影響經濟。為建構美聯儲所使用的計量經濟模式，以總需求和總供給的變化的角度來看，傾向于總結會計影響。例如，支付公共基礎設施的增加，或為促使消費者消費更多，而增加需求的其種减稅。會計政策也影響了總供給額，例如，藉課稅務代碼所提供的鼓勵措施。為了突出被提出的整套會計方案對經濟的衝擊力，美聯儲設計師和政策制定者，必須依理論和歷史的經驗來評估，這些供需影響的大小和時機。

Germany’s trade surplus is a problem.

德國的貿易順差是一項難題

The effects of a fiscal program also depend on the state of the economy when the program is put in place. When I was Fed chair, I argued on a number of occasions against fiscal austerity (tax increases, spending cuts). The economy at the time was suffering from high unemployment, and with monetary policy operating close to its limits, I pushed (unsuccessfully) for fiscal policies to increase aggregate demand and job creation.

會計計畫的影響還取決於，程式落實到位時的經濟狀況。當本人擔任美聯儲主席時，在多個場合我反對財政緊縮政策（增加稅收、削減開支）。當時的經濟正遭逢高失業率，與因為貨幣政策運作接近了極限，我試圖推動，要求增加總需求和創造就業機會，可惜政策並未成功。

Today, with the economy approaching full employment, the need for demand-side stimulus, while perhaps not entirely gone, is surely much less than it was three or four years ago. There is still a case for fiscal policy action today, but to increase output without unduly increasing inflation the focus should be on improving productivity and aggregate supply—for example, through improved public infrastructure that makes our economy more efficient or tax reforms that promote private capital investment.

今天，隨著經濟接近充分使用，對於需求刺激力全方位的需要，雖然也許不完全消失，但肯定是遠遠小於三或四年前。還有雖然今天仍有需要，採取會計政策，但為了增加產量，而不過度增加通貨膨脹，我們的聚焦點應放在改進生產力和總供給量 — 例如，藉由使我們的經濟更有效率，已改善的公共基礎設施，或促進私人資本投資的稅收改革。

THE FED’S REACTION TO THE PROSPECTIVE FISCAL PROGRAM對潛在的財政計畫，美聯儲的反應

While it’s hard to know how much of the market’s optimism reflects expected policy changes under the new administration, the rise in equities, interest rates, and the dollar since the election is precisely the configuration that standard macroeconomics would predict in anticipation of a Trump-backed fiscal expansion.

雖然在新一政府執政下，不易明白市場的樂觀情緒反映出了多少，預期的政策改變，股市淨值的上升，利率，美元，因為這次選舉是正確地勾畫出，標準的宏觀經濟學，能預測在川普支持的會計擴張下，預期的精確輪廓。

(A similar pattern occurred in the early Reagan years, which was dominated by tax cuts, increased military spending, higher deficits, and rate increases by the Federal Reserve.)  According to the minutes of the December 13-14 Fed meeting, monetary policymakers were quite aware of the market’s expectations for fiscal policy, and the staff included in its forecast a “provisional assumption” of a more expansionary fiscal stance.

（類似的模式發生在雷根總統執政的早期年代，此模式的主要特色是，稅收削減，增加軍費開支、 高赤字，以及美聯儲的加息）。依照美聯儲(2016年) 12 月13-14日的會議記錄顯示，貨幣政策制定者相當清楚，市場對會計政策的期待，和包括工作人員所作，更具擴張性的財政立場的一項"臨時假設"的預測。

待續-(to be continued)

Ben S. Bernanke (前任聯邦儲備銀行理事主席)

 前任理事會主席-柏南克

01/29/2017

Justin Lai 編譯

02/20/2017