如果中國武力犯台，台灣如何自衛?-3

如果中國武力犯台，台灣如何自衛?-3

The Plan Taiwan Needs to Defend against China- by J. Michael Cole

《編按》:1946年台灣遭到228事件之浩劫時，美國一駐台官員(George Kerr)講了一句話，『台灣太小無法獨立，但台灣問題則大到不可忽視』(Taiwan is too small to be independent; the Taiwan’s issue is too big to be ignored.)下列為外國記者客觀的、嚴峻的台海情勢。當大部分台灣人天天沈溺於舒適生活當中時，應該停下來思考這個問題，俗話說，『天有不測風雲』。另本文在網路上登在不起眼的國際新聞上，如果你關心台灣事務，希望引起你的注意：

《本文作者簡介》：

J. Michael Cole is a Taipei-based senior non-resident fellow with the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute and an associate researcher with the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China (CEFC). He recently retired from the Thinking Taiwan Foundation and is a former analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS). He has a master’s degree from the Royal Military College of Canada.

       

               CSIS加拿大總部                                Thinking Taiwan Foundation

柯爾先生乃Nottingham(英國)大學中國政策學院，在台北的資深研究員，也是法國研究所專門研究中國問題的副研究員。最近自台灣智庫基金會退休，曾擔任加拿大安全情報中心分析師。他的學歷是加拿大皇家軍事學院碩士

《編按》：

本編將論及對付中國兩棲攻台最有效的防衛方法之一，即台灣 『自己建造潛艇』，因美國拒絕出售(台灣有錢無底買?) 但由誰負責此事? 由前空軍出身的將領-馮世寬擔任。馮已71歲高齢了，又是空軍背景能勝任造船任務? 馮可靠嗎(reliability)? 又民進黨堅決造船工作由從未具潛艇製造經驗的中船承造，為什麼，一艘潛艇造價預估為一仟億元台幣，再加追加費用，可能超過許多，(預算追加乃台灣承包工程之『慣例』；常見包商之理由之一為：物資波動或設計變更，當然這是國外承包商少有的現象!!) 。台灣這種 『土法大鍊鋼式』的製造潛艇法，不無風險。除了技術(know-how) 外，要有經驗、敬業精神(dedication)，更重要的是清白、不A、不貪(integrity) ，你認為呢?

Should relations between Taiwan and China deteriorate such that Beijing feels compelled to invade Taiwan (for example, Taiwan declares de jure independence, which President Tsai has vowed she will not entertain), an amphibious assault would be the most feasible option for China, as this alone would provide the “lift” necessary to transport personnel and equipment across the Taiwan Strait. Although an airlift following the PLAAF’s securing control of the air corridor in the Taiwan Strait is possible on paper, the amount of cargo aircraft that would be needed to accomplish such a mission will remain beyond China’s capability for the foreseeable future. Thus, given the lack of land access to Taiwan, the PLA’s only option would be amphibious.

萬一臺灣與中國之間的關係惡化到北京不得不攻打臺灣（例如，臺灣宣佈法理獨立，但蔡發誓她絕不會考慮），兩棲攻擊對於中國來說，是最可行的選擇，因為唯有這個選項，才能提供必要的人員和設備，越過臺灣海峽作為"升降"運輸之作用。在可預見的未來，雖然中國空軍在取得台灣海峽的制空權後，空運兵力在紙上作業是可能的，但要完成這項任務所需的貨運飛機承載數量，依然尚非中國的能力所能辦到。因此，與臺灣與大陸缺少陸地連接，中國人民解放軍的唯一選項兩只有棲作戰一途。

Consequently, Taiwan should continue to invest in land-, sea- and air-based antiship/area denial and counter-landing capabilities, with greater emphasis on dispersibility. This can be accomplished by outfitting small attack, low-radar-signature vessels with antiship missiles (e.g., Hsiung Feng-2/3) as well as increasing the number of road-mobile HF-3 launchers across Taiwan proper as well as on outlying islands. Coupled with the deployment of ground-based one-to-two-hundred-kilometer ASM capability in Japan (Okinawa and Ryukyu islands) and/or in the Philippines, land-based antiship missiles in Taiwan and on its outlying islands would, as the RAND Corporation stipulates in a recent report, “effectively deny all naval traffic south of Okinawa” and “significantly limit” all naval traffic in the Luzon Strait. The Tsai administration should explore such options with the United States, Japan and the Philippines, while making sure that such an architecture would only be activated in case of major escalation or outright aggression by the PLA.

因此，臺灣應該繼續投資于陸地及海空為基礎的反艦艇、區域封鎖和反登陸的能力，且應更注重防衛的分散性。欲達到此項戰備，就必須有小型攻擊性、低雷達信號、且具反艦導彈 (例如，雄風-2/3飛彈)，以及在全臺灣所有適當地點，和在離島上，增加在公路機動性的 HF 3飛彈發射器。依蘭德公司(Rand Corp.)最近的報告指出，連同部署於日本（沖繩和琉球群島）或菲律賓與台灣反艦飛彈地面上，射程在一到兩個一百公里 的ASM 飛彈能力裝備，將有效地堵住冲繩南邊的海軍運輸，並且"極大地限制"在呂宋海峽所有海軍運輸交通。故台灣政府當局應與美國、日本和菲律賓探討此類選項，同時另一方面也應確定，只有戰争升高，和中國全面性的立即攻擊時，才能啟動這種運作機制。

   

                                                                                       冲繩空軍基地

 The area-denial strategy should also be accompanied by efforts to augment observation, surveillance and tracking capability via radar, unmanned aerial and sea-based vehicles as well as low-orbit sensors and intelligence sharing.

 區域封鎖之策略也應藉雷達、無人機，和海上艦艇以及低軌感應器和共用情報等方式，去增加觀察、監視和跟蹤的能力。

Submarine Program (潛艇計劃)

   

              中國核子潛艦                                                               中國無人機

A key component of Taiwan’s ability to deter an amphibious assault or naval blockade by China will be its submarine capability. After years of stasis and the refusal of the United States to sell it advanced diesel-electric submarines, which the United States no longer produces, Taiwan has finally decided to embark on an Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program. Since Taiwan has no experience designing or building submarines, it will perforce need assistance from abroad. Progress has been made in this respect since 2013, and sometime last year the United States is believed to have given the “green light” for efforts to proceed, with U.S. defense firms given permission to play a role—especially for fire control and onboard weapon systems.

臺灣的遏止兩棲攻擊或中國海軍封鎖的能力，關鍵在其潛艇的能力。經過多年的停滯和美國拒絕出售先進的，但不再生產的柴電潛艇給台灣，臺灣終於決定要走上一個本土防禦潛艇 (IDS) 計劃。因為臺灣沒有設計或建造潛艇的經驗，它必需要國外援助。2013 年以來在這方面取得了進展，和去年的某個時候，據信美國已同意讓台灣繼續努力，美國國防防衛公司獲准授權扮演一個有利的角色——尤其是對火災控制和船載機載武器系統方面。

      

                     中國两棲攻擊艦                                             台灣反登陸作戰部隊

With an estimated cost of US$3 billion per boat, the IDS program will be the most ambitious defense endeavor in Taiwan’s recent history. Consequently, it will be essential that every phase of the project is handled properly and that the tasks are assigned to the most suitable contractors. Industry sources indicate that success for the program would in part be contingent on leadership at the Ministry of National Defense, preferably by appointing someone from the navy to head the MND. The Tsai administration instead appointed the seventy-one-year-old Feng Shih-kuan, a former Air Force officer and chairman of Aerospace Industrial Development Corp (AIDC) from 2006–08.

由於每艘潛艇估計造價為 $ 30 億美元，IDS的研究計劃在臺灣的近代史中，將是最具雄心的防禦努力。因此，專案的每個階段必要妥善處理，把艱鉅的專案付託給最合適的承包商。業內人士表明，成功的計劃，部分將取決於國防部的卓越領導，最好是任命某位優秀海軍人員來領導國防部。但是蔡却委任七十一歲高齡的馮世寬，他是出身空軍和航空航太工業發展公司 (AIDC) 的主席，任期自 2006年迄2008。(編按，疑問: 他懂海軍嗎?)

                         IDS                                                                             AIDC

According to industry sources, the Tsai administration and MND will also need to ensure that the right outfit is picked as the “prime” contractor for the project. So far the DPP seems fixated on making China Shipbuilding Corp (CSBC), which has no experience designing submarines, the prime contractor for the multibillion-dollar project. Industry experts are of the opinion that Ship and Ocean Industries (SOIC) under the Ministry of Economic Affairs should take the lead, with a suitable chairman appointed by the president.

        

業內人士透露，蔡政府和國防部將還需要確保，能挑選出合適的承包商來擔任此重任。到目前為止，民進黨似乎固定採用，沒有設計潛艇經驗的中船公司，來擔任這個幾十億美元的專案主承包商。業內專家都認為，應由經濟部事務局屬下之船舶和海洋產業 (SOIC) 事務局來擔任最適當，而合適的主席人選才由總統任命。

(編按：這是外國記者的看法，也許他並不瞭解台灣人的想法，此等涉及國防祕密之事又能公開發包，蔡本人可靠，但底下人就不得而知了)

未完(待續)

Justin Lai編譯

06/20/2016