2016年2月17日 星期三

論台、美關係的未來

「展望美、台關係」-

“The Future of US -Taiwan  Relations “-

請觀賞影片:https://youtu.be/iDcIYOIKTgQ
  

看完短片後,下列是我們對證詞的看法-

Testimony of Deputy Assistant Secretary
美國副助理副國務卿的作證

「us house of representatives」的圖片搜尋結果

- the testimony was made by  Susan Thornton, Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of East Asian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. She testifies before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Washington, D.C. in February…
美國國務院助理副國務卿- Ms Thornon在眾議院外交委員會作證說明台美關係
 (2/11/2016)  

In the testimony by Ms. Thornton, we found following unusual points she keeps emphasizing about the relations between USA and Taiwan:
在證詞中我們發現下列不尋常的特點:

A.    Facts:

1)      The distinguished achievement TWN made in economic during the recent years, starting from 2012
提及2012年以來台灣傑出的經貿發展。

2)      The unusual progress made in democracy, especially Ms. Tsai Eng-wen won overwhelmingly victory in a recent presidential election.  She stresses, that Taiwanese people enjoy much more political freedom than most of Asian countries.
台灣特殊的民主政治成就,尤其蔡英文以壓倒性勝利取得總統寶座。她強調台灣享有大多數亞洲人所沒有的政治選擇自由。

3)      The stability of Taiwan, signifying there is not any perceivable conflict, politically or militarily between the Taiwan Strait. She admires the political wisdom of leaders on both side of the Strait.
台灣內部的安定意謂台海政治與軍事的穩定;她讚美兩岸政治領導人之政治智慧。

4)      Taiwan ranks one of the leading trading partners of China in recent years, benefiting both sides.
台灣在大陸貿易伙伴中名列前茅,雙方互利。

5)      The successful and peaceful dialogue between both sides bring about peace for both.
海峽兩岸和平對話,導致和平。

B.     Significance of the Testimony and our Comments:
(作證之意義及我們的看法)

1)      Ms. Thornton mentions the name of Taiwan for several times in her testimony, though in Shanghai Communique, China insisted in 1970s that there should be only one China, not one China, one Taiwan.
Thornton小姐數次提到台灣兩字,雖然在1970年代中、美的上海公報中,中國堅持一中,不可有一中、一台。

2)      In general, Ms. Thornton’s prepared statement and testimony is fair, reasonable.  It is far from being provocative to China; in fact, US cannot afford to provoke China in any way.
她的事先準備的講稿陳述,大體上是公正與合理的;毫無對中國有挑釁之意,事實上也挑釁不起。

3)      The testimony was made by a government official though her rank is as low (to China) as deputy assistant secretary.  However, it is high enough for Taiwan government. Anyway, it’s an government official statement.
對中國言,作證者的身分雖低至東亞事務局之副助理國務卿,但對台灣政府而言卻已夠高了。反正是官方陳述。

4)      Is the timing of the testimony good enough? Or are there any alternative better choices? 作證時機點適當? 或另有更隹選擇?
China has been trying very hard to bring to justice her many corrupted officials, currently escaped and taking shelter in the U.S.  China is seeking all possible means from US government for help to take them back to China. Besides, some booksellers in Hong Kong were arrested by the Chinese judicial officials in Hong Kong. The booksellers were arrested because they were publishing some books in relation with defamation of top Communists’ officials, even Si, jin-ping himself included. The recent riots breaking out in 旺角, 香港。Presidential campaigns are fervently going on in the US.  China may try not to instigate or excite emotional feelings of American electorate against China.
中國擬追捕藏匿美國的貪污要犯,並引渡回國,出版禁書的書商在香港捕(英、美同表關切),禁書中含習近平的私生活。香港旺角的民主暴動,美國總統大選如火如荼進行中,避免受人以口實,給予候選人機會煽動美國選民反中國。以上這些客觀事實,也許是美國政府認為適當的時機。

5)      Why did China not strongly react or even protest? Causes might be related with the above.
   為何中國沒有強烈反應,甚至抗議? (或與上列因素有關)

6)      What did the US government profit from this testimony?
在此次作證事件中,台灣、美國獲得什麼好處?
The status quo of Taiwan & USA, China & USA is getting more transparent than ever before.  It’s hard to say how long China will endure current situation – one China, one Taiwan.  But, it is to the best interest of the three parties involved. Any party will be so stupid as to attempt to break the existing balance. Besides, Taiwan gains some ground with U.S. government officials saying something in its favor.
台美、中美的現狀比以前更透明化。中國能忍耐一中一台的情勢到多久,不易明白,但它卻是最符合三方面的利益。任何一方試圖破壞現有的平衡,是不智之舉。美國政府發表對台灣有利談話-希望現狀的維持,台灣當局當然求之不得。當然美國希望繼續維持在東南亞,尤其是南海的既得利益。


Justin Lai (賴正雄

02/17/2016

       

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